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The rapid decline in Official Development Assistance (AOD) could cause more than 22 million additional deaths by 2030including 5.4 million children under five years of ageaccording to a new study led by the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), with support from The Rockefeller Foundationn through his charity RF Catalytic Capital. The results show that current cuts in global aid not only threaten humanitarian and development programs, but could also undo decades of progress in reducing avoidable mortality in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).
The study, “The impact of two decades of humanitarian and development assistance and the projected mortality consequences of current defunding through 2030: retrospective evaluation and prognostic analysis”It was carried out by researchers from ISGlobal (Spain), a center promoted by the “la Caixa” Foundation, the Collective Health Institute of the Federal University of Bahia (Brazil), the Manhiça Health Research Center (CISM) and the National Institute of Health (INS) of Mozambique. The research, currently available in format prepress, combines a retrospective analysis of the health impact of ODA between 2002 and 2021 with projection models to 2030, which estimate mortality in current and future scenarios of funding cuts.
“These results reveal the enormous contribution of international aid to global health in the last two decades,» he says. Davide Rasellacoordinator of the study and ICREA researcher at ISGlobal. «The A sharp contraction in ODA funding could have serious repercussions.causing substantial increases in preventable deaths in adults and children in the coming years. “Beyond the immediate human impact, it could also critically undermine the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030.”
Continuation of previous findings on USAID aid cuts
This work expands on a previous study led by ISGlobal, published earlier this year, which estimated that the dismantling of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) could cause more than 14 million additional preventable deaths between now and 2030. Both analyzes apply the same methodological framework, integrating longitudinal data with micro simulation models validated at the country level to quantify the health consequences of reduced funding. While the USAID study focused on a single donor, this new analysis covers all OECD taxpayersoffering a full assessment of the impact the cuts would have on mortality.
ODA saved millions of lives; Now millions are at risk
Using this approach, the research team found that ODA has had a measurable and sustained impact on global health. Between 2002 and 2021, Higher levels of funding were associated with a 23% reduction in mortality for all causes and one 39% decrease in infant mortality, in 93 low- and middle-income countries. Aid investments were especially effective in reducing deaths from HIV/AIDS (70%), malaria (5%) and nutritional deficiencies (56%)in addition to achieving significant reductions in mortality from tuberculosis, diarrheal diseases, respiratory infections and maternal and perinatal causes. Beyond its direct impact, ODA has been essential to strengthen and sustain health systems, support disease control and eradication programs, and improve preparedness for outbreaks and epidemics.
However, simulations show that the current wave of cuts, driven by sharp reductions in the United States, the United Kingdom, France and Germany, among others, could reverse these gains. In a severe cuts scenariothe studio projects 22.6 million additional deaths by 2030while even a moderate scenario could cause 9.4 million preventable deaths. The magnitude of this impact is comparable to a global crisis. At the peak of the pandemic COVID-19, some 14.9 million excess deaths were recorded worldwide, according to the World Health Organization. The mortality associated with current cuts could even exceed that figure.
An unprecedented contraction in aid
«The ODAwhich represents the majority of international financing for development and humanitarian action, supports key sectors such as health, education, water and sanitation and food security«, points out Andrea Ferreira da Silvapostdoctoral researcher at the Institute of Collective Health (ISC) in Brazil.
For the first time in almost 30 years, United States, France, Germany and the United Kingdom They have their contributions to ODA reduced in 2024. If the cuts announced for 2025 are also applied, it will be the first time in history that the four countries cut ODA simultaneously for two consecutive years. Dismantling USAID alone represents an estimated 83% reduction of its programs, cutting total US aid by approximately half, while total ODA funding is estimated to fall by 21% in 2025 compared to 2023.
“It’s not just a budgetary issue,” he says. Claudia Garcia Vazpolicy analysis coordinator at ISGlobal. «It is a matter of life and death for millions of people. Cuts to global aid are a moral catastrophe and a last for global prosperity«. For his part, Ariel Nhacolosenior demographer at CISM Mozambique, adds: “sharp ODA cuts are already seriously affecting the most vulnerable”.
A wake-up call for the international community.
“Development aid continues to be one of the most effective tools to save lives, strengthen health systems and reduce poverty,” he emphasizes. Rodrigo Volmir AnderleISC postdoctoral researcher. The research team urges donor countries and international organizations to urgently reconsider current funding decisions, close the gap and reaffirm its commitment to the SDGs. “The sudden withdrawal of aid threatens to dismantle systems that have taken decades to build,” he concludes. Rasella. “Reversing this trend is essential not only for global health, but also for global stability.”
he prepress, “The impact of two decades of humanitarian and development assistance and the projected mortality consequences of current defunding through 2030: retrospective evaluation and prognostic analysis”It is available here.
The 93 countries analyzed for this study, representing more than 95% of the total population of the 133 countries receiving ODA, were selected for the quality of the data, excluding those where population size made it difficult to assess the impact of the cuts. They include:
- Asia: Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Cambodia, China, India, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Laos, Malaysia, Mongolia, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, Philippines, Sri Lanka, Tajikistan, Thailand, Turkey, Uzbekistan and Vietnam.
- Europe: Albania, Armenia, Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, Macedonia, Moldova, Montenegro, Serbia and Ukraine.
- Latin America: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Paraguay and Peru.
- Middle East and North Africa: Algeria, Djibouti, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia.
- Sub-Saharan Africa: Angola, Benin, Botswana, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Ivory Coast, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Eswatini, Ethiopia, Gabon, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Kenya, Lesotho, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mauritania, Mozambique, Namibia, Niger, Nigeria, Republic of the Congo, Rwanda, Senegal, Sierra Leone, South Africa, Sudan, Tanzania, Togo, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe.
