62.700 muertes asociadas con el calor del verano de 2024

The year 2024 beat several temperature records. It was the hottest year ever registered and its Vero a study led by the Institute of Global Health of Barcelona (ISGlobal), a center imported by the «La Caixa» Foundation, has estimated in 62,775 Heat -related deaths between June 1 and September 30 Of that year. These son figures son 23.6% higher that the 50,800 apparition estimated for the summer of 2023 and 8.1% lower than the fences of 67,900 estimated for the summer period of 2022. The data has been known to be known through a Publication in the magazine Nature Medicine.

Italy and Spain, countries with more number of deaths

The study focused on 654 regions of 32 European countries. The country with a mayor number of deaths associated with heat was Italy, with just over 19,000 deaths Estimated in the summer of 2024. In the preceding summers of 2023 and 2022, Italy was also the country with mayor mortality with heat, with almost 13,800 and about 18,800 estimated deaths, respective.

The second place in terms of mortality estimated in the summer of 2024 occupies it Spain, with more than 6,700 deathsFollowed by Germany (about 6,300)Greece (about 6,000) and Romania (more than 4,900). In the case of Spain, the estimated deaths in 2024 were approximately half than in 2022, because the temperatures were lower than in the two previous summers. In the case of Spain, the estimated deaths in 2024 were approximately half than in 2022, because the temperatures were lower than in the two previous summers.

The 10 European countries with mayor number of estimated deaths

Data from the 32 countries, water.

Greece and Bulgaria, countries with the highest mortality rate

With regard to the incidence of mortality, the countries with a mayor rate of death related to the heat for the same period were Greece (574 deaths estimated by million people), Bulgaria (530 deaths per million) and Serbia (379 deaths per million). These son rates Higher significant That those estimated for the two previous summers of the study, where the highest were the 373 deaths per million of Greece in 2023.

Together, 15 of the 32 countries evaluated registration its mayor load and mortality rates related to heat during the summer of 2024.

The 10 European countries with mayor mortality rate related to the estimated heat

Data from the 32 countries, water.

Data from Spain by provinces

The data from Spain by provinces are available in the following table: https://infogram.com/mortation-calor-2024-provinias-espan–1h984WV88mekz2p

Differences by sex and age

The number of deaths related to heat was superior in women and the most advanced age along the three summers studied (2022, 2023 and 2024). Concretement, it is estimated that in the summer of 2024 the number of deaths related to heat in women was a 46.7% higher than in men. In over 75 years, the estimated mortality was a 323% mayor who in the other age groups.

Areas with mayor vulnerability

«Although the summer of 2024 was the warmer registration according to CopernicusIn the specific regions of our study, the summers of 2022 and 2023 were warmer. However, these regal differences in the average temperature are not reflected total in mortality, since the docks estimated by 2024 fuel higher than those estimated for the summer of 2023 and light inferences to the highest las Tomáš JanošResearcher in Isglobal and Recex And first author of the study.

“Europe is the continent that is warming more quickly, twice the seal projects of the heat releted with heat Janoš.

Forecast.health, an effective tool and factory for heat emergency alerts

In total, the study suggests that in the three summers studied, more than 181,000 docks related to heat in Europe would have occurred, two thirds of the qualities would have occurred in southern Europe. According to Joan Ballester ClaramuntDirector of the Investigator of the Europe of Investigation Council (ERC) Suitable for the first And senior author of the study, the magnitude of these figures shows the need to «strengthen adaptation strategies, including the development and implementation of a new generation of early heat and health alert systems, of rank rank in the range in the range in the Úbic.

Therefore, part of the study was dedicated to evaluate the early alert system Forecast.healthA tool created with the «proof of concept» aids HHS-EWS AND Preventive Of the ERC and use epidemiological models to transform weather predictions into daily heat alerts by regions and for species population groups. The analysis performed that the tool has a High reliability to launch heat health alerts at least a week in advance when conditions point to an exceptional mortality risk.

«In southern Europe, however, the high -early system continued to show high relative reliability even beyond the seven -day horizon, which, taking into account that it is about the damn unexplored opportunity to save lives among the most vulnerable populations,» he says Joan Ballester Claramunt.

Methodologist

The equipment used daily temperature observations by rules and mortality records related to the 2015-2019 period to adjust epidemiological models. Once adjusted, they were combined with daily observations and temperature predictions and mortality of the 2022 to 2024 Mortality of the mortality of the mortality with the heat in this three recent summers.

Reestimacy of the mortality associated with heat in the summers of 2023 and 2022

This study happens to those carried out in previous years with respect to the estimated mortality for summers of 2023 and 2022, respectively. After verifying that the use of weekly mortality records to adjust the EPIDEMIOLOGICAL MODELS Infraestimacy of mortality related to heat between 5 and 20%The Equugo this time has used daily mortality series from the database of the Early-ADAPT project (www.early-adapt.eu) To adjust epidemiological models.

With this improved methodology, the data of the summers of 2022 and 2023 were re -processed, leading to higher mortality estimates than in the studies carried out in years and that the investigators consider more precise.

Reference

Tomáš Janoš, Marcos Quijal-Zamorano, Natalia Shartova, Elisa Gallo, Raúl Fernando Méndez Turrubiates, Nadia Denisse Beltrán Barrón, Fabien Peyrusse, Joan Ballester. Mortality related to heat in Europe for 2024 and the health emergency forecast to reduce preventable deaths. Nature MedicineSeptember 2025. DOI: 10.1038/S41591-025-03954-7