Al borde del colapso: lo que aprendimos en la 2ª Conferencia Global sobre Puntos de No Retorno – Blog

The 2nd Conference on not return points warned that the main climatic systems are close to collapse – with serious health risks – but still margin to change the course.

From the thaw of Greenland to the growing fragility of the Amazon, the 2nd global conference on non -return points (Exeter, the United Kingdom, July 2025) launched a forceful message: humanity is approaching raspidamete to irreversible planetary thresholds. Organization by him Global Systems Institute of the University of ExeterAlong with him Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and the Max Planck Institute of GeoantropologyThis gathering congregated outstanding scientists and experts to evaluate How close we are real of some of the most dangerous non -return points on earth, and That can still be done.

The four systems at mayor risk

New evidence presented at the conference suggests that the Western Antarctica and Greenland’s ice layerTHE Amazon jungle And the South circulation of Atlaian return (AMOC, For its acronym in English) they are dangerous near overwhelming transition crytic umbales, more than was thought. No return points of these systems could cross Before this century ends if we continue to the real rhythm of greenhouse gas emissionswhich would trigger environmental, economic and sanitary consequences on a large scale.

• A new study with satellite data reports a substantial increase in superficial salinity in the southern oceanindicating that warmer waters are reaching the surface and have contributed to the marine thaw near the Antarctica Since 2015.
• In addition, sea ice in the region is in decline since 2016, and a surface equivalent to the size of Greenland During this period, the mayor environmental change in the Royal Land.
• For its part, the AMOCOne of the main oceanic currents of the planet, is projected that it enters a weak extreme state or collapse just after the year 2100 under high emissions an emissions an emissions, there is no Indians of an even earlier collapse, before 2100.
• Also the Amazon jungle It could suffer a large -scale ecological collapse as soon as 1.9 ° C global heating, well below the previous threshold assumed of 2 ° -4 ° C, due to the combined impact of climate change, the use of land use and deforestion.

The cost of inaction: health, governance and global inequality

No return points should not be isolated environmental phenomena: they have Very serious implications for human health. The increase in sea level, generalized food insecurity, forced displacements and the new risks of infectious cooling are among the consequence in waterfall that could trigger.

There seems to be legal foundations to demand responsibility to governments and force them to mitigate climate change so that public health is protected

A key message of the conference: There seems to be legal foundations to demand responsibility to governments and force them A mitigate climate change so that public health is protected. An increasing number of legal studies supports the idea that states have the duty of align their emission polyics with a global compatible carbon budgets of 1.5 ° C target and maintain global warming by the 2 ° C, due to 1.5 algae. Climate non -return points can have health.

Even so, as many speakers emphasized, time is ending. A collective declarantBacked by the majority of conference participants, he asked «an urgent and unprecedented action» by political leaders to prevent climate non -return points and irreversible damage to humanity.

Hope in action: science, society and positive inflection points

Hay encouraging signals in the rapid adoption of Renewable energies AND electric vehiclewhich shows that «positive inflection points» are occurred that feedback. But progress is not enough and should accelerate in the next years to avoid catastrophic thresholds.

The scientific collaboration also advances. The launch of Shit (Non -return points models comparison project) is a fundamental step forward. This new initiative, aligned with the Intergovernmental Group of Experts on Climate Change (IPCC), brings together climate modeling groups to study overcoming scenarios and inflection dynamics. DELES researchers and researchers Climate and Planetary Change Hub of Isglobal Contribute to Tipmip through the project funded by the European Union TypesmAnalyzing how the destabilization of the Amazon in regions and under the influence of El Niño can increase the Pathogen propagation risksA worry that is at the intersection between human health and planetary health.

A call to a smarter communication and a stronger governance

The participants also agreed that the scientific community must do more to communicate the dangers and urgency of the points of non -return to the public, the political leaders and the media. At the same time, the media are also wrong and must stop giving the same space to people who are not scientific to opint about it. In addition, they must focus on educating the population about what is known about climate change and highlighting the connection between climate and health. The concept of uncertainty You must care to explain, and I do not know -if an excuse for the «give the matter for the matter». We must also address the misinformation and underestimation of the climatic, special by the financial sector and insurance.

The media are wrong and must stop giving the same space to people who are not scientific to comment on this subject

The role of the GeoingenieríaThat is still controversial. Although some argue that options such as solar radio management deserve to be explored, the community dedicated to the points of no climate return emphasized that The reduction of emissions must be a priorityAnd that geo -enmentia is associated with uncertain and contradictory results, in addition to leading to complex risks in ethics, justice and governance. Only binding (and non -voluntary) reductions of lascence emissions to achieve significant resulting, and this should be a key message in the next Cop30 in Brazil.

The window to act is closing. But if we adopt science -based polyics, legal accountability and deep cooperation, we can still change the rumbia towards a more favorable future

It is important to highlight that the conference encouraged a rethink not only technologies, but the governance systems themselves. An example of this is MalaysiaWhere the planetary health approach has been integrated into the planning of national development and university study plans. It is a demonstration of what can be achieved with local political volunteer and leadership. In addition, an initiative to elaborate a new Global Constitution that avoids the collapse of civilization. Anyone can contribute to Ellala water. Conference participants agreed that global governance is needed to apply policies that stop the climate change. However, it could be intelligent to think first about local and community governance, to avoid non -return points that then generate a feedback effector towards governance -which is needed.

The conclusion?

The risks for earth systems are now at very alarming levels. As Johan Rockström and others have stressed, they already meet the high -impact global risk criteria, which could «kill or seriously give more than 10 % of the human population.» With a heating of 1.5 ° C hay Five And even sete Point of point of no return at risk; We are dangerously approaching them. Above 2 ° C, we enter a very high risk zone for these elements. The window to act is closing. But if we adopt polyics based on science, legal responsibility and deep cooperation, we still have the opportunity to direct the planet towards a more favorable and stable future.