Major Storm on the Horizon: NCDs and mental health conditions to cost South America trillions by 2050 – PAHO/WHO

Washington DC, July 15, 2025 (PAHO) – Non -Communicable Diseases (NCD) and mental health conditions will cost South America more than US $ 7.3 billion in loss of productivity and medical care expenses between 2020 and 2050, according to estimates in a new report by the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) launched today. This figure, equivalent to the entire annual GDP of Latin America and the Caribbean, increases an urgent economic and health emergency, and the need to act now to prevent diseases and protect development.

«These are not just health statistics, they are fiscal alarm bells,» said PAHO director Dr. Jarbas Barbosa. «The growing burden of ENTIs and mental health conditions has become an economic emergency, perhaps the worst economic disaster in health.»

The report – Important storm on the horizon: health and macroeconomic loads of non -communicable diseases and mental health conditions in South America – He was commissioned by Paho and developed with the analytical support of the Harvard Thard Threat School of Public Health. It presents detailed macroeconomic projections of ENT and Mental Health for ten countries: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay and Venezuela.

NCDs are already the main cause of death in the Americas, claiming 6 million lives in 2021, and almost 40% of them occur prematurely in people under 70. Diabetes is also rapidly increasing, with an estimated 43 million people who cannot access treatment. Mental health conditions are also increasing, even more striving health systems and productivity already stretched.

NCD: a growing economic and health threat

Combined economic losses of ENTIs and mental health in South America are mainly driven by premature deaths, long -term disability and lower workforce productivity. The losses of individual countries projected by 2020-2050 vary from US $ 88 billion in Uruguay to US $ 3.7 billion in Brazil, which represents up to 4.5% of GDP in some countries.

«For decades, policy formulators in the Americas and beyond have tended to undervalue health. But the world recognizes more and more than health not only has an intrinsic value, but also instrumental,» said Dr. David and Bloom, professor of economy and demography at the Harvard Than School of Public Health and leader of the report. «A key objective of this report is to equip Paho and South American decision makers with evidence to advance the needle on the priority given to large and transformers to the budgets of the health sector.»

The increase in these conditions is attributed to aging populations, as well as increased exposure to preventable risk factors, such as tobacco consumption, unhealthy diets, sedentary behavior, harmful alcohol consumption and air pollution.

Since 2000, obesity among adults in the region has increased by 67.5%, diabetes by 53.6%and physical inactivity by 24.1%. In particular, approximately 67.5%of adults in the Americas are overweight, well above the global average of 43.5%, and the region has the highest levels of physical inactivity worldwide in 35.6%. These trends, if not addressed, will lead to greater economic stagnation, inequality and overload of the health system.

Progress performed, but the action must be intensified

Despite the shadow provocations, significant progress has been made, with a decrease in cardiovascular and cancer mortality since 2000 due to politics and intervention. The Hearts of Paho initiative, implemented in 33 countries, has helped more than 5.7 million people to administer hypertension through primary care.

However, the report urges countries to «go further» in three key areas and completely implement proven and profitable interventions:

• Prevention: Addressing the main risk factors such as tobacco consumption, unhealthy diets and sedentary behavior can prevent many conditions.
• Diagnosis and early treatment: Health systems that detect early risks and act quickly improve survival and economic participation.
• Financial solutions and global commitment: National Health Budgets must prioritize ENTIs and mental health. Fiscal policies, such as special taxes on tobacco, alcohol and sugar, sweetened drinks can finance reforms while improving the health of the population.

«Healthy diets and regular physical activity are Medicine against EVs,» said Dr. Barbosa. «We can prevent up to 40% of cancers by reducing tobacco consumption, improving diets and promoting active lifestyles. And we can eliminate cervical cancer with vaccines, early detection and treatment of precancerous lesions.»

Build stronger health systems and take advantage of the global impulse

Paho works to expand access to essential medicines and diagnoses, particularly through its grouped acquisition mechanism, PAHO rotating funds and is also strengthening health systems to expand coverage and integrate mental health and NCD services. Currently, only 36% of people with hypertension have it under control and 58% of people with diabetes receive effective treatment.

A fundamental opportunity to address this challenge will be the next fourth high -level meeting on ENT and Mental Health in September during the United Nations General Assembly, where governments, civil society, academia and the private sector are expected to renew their commitments and adopt a new political declaration.

The PAHO urges all governments, partners and communities that health is central to economic strategies, promotes healthy lifestyles, strengthens tax and regulatory policies to address key risk factors, invest in primary care and expand mental health services.

«Health is the basis of development, security and prosperity,» concluded Dr. Barbosa. «Addressing the ENTIs and improving mental health gives us a clear path to a better future. But it requires a bold, coordinated and data -based policy. The time of acting is now.»