Más de 14 millones de muertes prevenibles de aquí a 2030 si continúan los recortes a la financiación de USAID

United Nations New study published in The lancet Launches a serious warning on consistent with the global health of recent cuts in the foreign aid of the United States. The study, coordinated by researchers from the Institute of Global Health of Barcelona (ISGLOBAL), together with the Institute of Collective Health of the Federal University of Bahia (ISC-UFBA), the University of California Los Angeles (UCLA) and the Center for Research in Health of Manhiça (CISM), daring, dartres) Between 2001 and 2021 91 million deaths were avoided in low and medium income countries thanks to programs financed by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), the largest agency to finance humanitarian aid and the development of the world. Sin embargo, recent Cuts could reverse this advance and cause more than 14 million additional deaths from here to 2030including More than 4.5 million children under five years.

«This study comes in a critical motorcycle,» he says DAVIDE RASELLAICREA researcher in Isglobal and study coordinator. “The 4th Conference on Financial Envelope for Development (FFD4) that is taken this week in Seville (Spain) is an opportunity toarine the global financing with realities over the Terro. If we want to meet the SDGs, we cannot afford to dismantle mechanisms to finance As Usaid, who have proven to save millions of lives. It is time to expand, not to cut. «

91 million saved lives

The researchers analyzed data from 133 countries And they combined two approaches: one retrospective evaluation Of the 2001–2021 period and Projection model Until 2030. They used statiny models that took into account factors such as population, income, education and health system to estimate the impact of USAID financing on mortality, including differences by age group and cause of dead of Muperte de USAID in mortality, included, differences by age group and the cause of death of the USAID in the mortality, included, differences by age group and cause of death of the USAID by age group and the cause of death of Usaid in mortality. Final me, they applied microsimulation models for calculating additional deaths could be produced if the dales are continued.

The study concludes that the USAID programs were associated with a 15% reduction in general mortality And a reduce from 32% in infant mortality (Under five years). It is estimated that They avoided more than 91 million deaths During this period, of which I accused 3o million were from children and Nires. In the countries that received the greatest funded, the impact was more noticeable in priority cooling: the HIV/AIDS Mortality decreased by 74%by malaria 53% and by Tropical diseases unattended 51%. Significant reductions were also observed in deaths caused by tuberculosis, malnutrition, diarrheal, respiratory infection, and maternal and perinatal causes.

«Our master analysis that the financing of USAID has been an essential force to save lives and improve health In some of the most vulnerable regions in the world in the last two decades, ”he says Daniella CavalcantiPostdoctoral researcher at the Collective Health Institute and first author of the study.

Millions of lives are now at risk

To estimate the future consequences of the cuts, the investigators simulated two scenarios: maintain the financing levels of 2023 or implementation loss Drastic cuts announced in early 2025, which represent a reduction of 83% in USAID programs. The projects indicate that, if the cuts are maintained, you could produce More than 14 thousand additional deaths before 2030including more than 4.5 billion children under five yearswhat is equivalent to unite 700,000 additional children’s deaths per year. These figures reflect the expected impact not only on health, but also in key sectors such as nutrition, education, water and healthy, and humanitarian aid.

RASELLA Underline the magnitude of the risk: “Our projects indicate that we could cut us vulnerable populations. The impact would be comparable to that of a global pandemic or a great armed conflict. «

«From our land experience, we have seen how USAID support has strengthened the capacity of local health systems for responding to an HIV, malaria or tuberculosis. Cut this financial now Not only puts lives in danger – too Socava Crytic infrastructure That have taken decades to consolidate, ”he concludes Francisco SaúteGeneral Director of the Manhiça Health Research Center (CISM) and co -author of the study.

A global domino effect

The study warns that the impact of the cuts could go beyond the USAID programs themselves. Scam United States contributing more than 40% of global humanitarian financialOther interactive donors could verse encouraged to also reduce their commitments. This would further weaken the provision of services in countries that already depend on external celery.

“The results of the child study even more worrying if we consider that Other international donors—Purgually in the EU – also They have announced substantial trimming In your help budgets, what Could cause even more additional deaths In the coming years, «he adds Caterina MontiPredoctoral researcher in Isglobal and co -author of the study.

Beyond direct support for health care, the authors highlight the import of USAID financial programs to improve education, food insurance, access to drinking water and economic resilience, key element key tail configuration Social determinants of health. The reduction of this support could undermine long -term development and stability in very low and middle income countries.

«American cicadans contribute some 17 We cynos a day to USAIDApproximate 64 dollars a year. I think the majority would support to maintain this financing if they knew how effective such a small contribution can be To save millions of lives«He says James MacinkoCo -author of the study and UCLA teacher.

This work constitutes the first comprehensive analysis that evaluates the impact of the total financing of USAID – including health, nutrition, humanitarian aid, development, education and other sectors – on mortality rates in low durating low durating country durants last two decades. The authors emphasize that the projects reflect the most likely scenario according to data and polystic decisions in dishes, but that the future resulting will depend on the response of governments and institutions.

Reference

Cavalcanti D, Ferreira L, Silva Af, Basterra el, Pena D, Monti C, Barreix G, Silva N, Vaz P, Sáute F, Fanjul G, Bassat Q, Naniche D, Macinko J, Rasella D. Evaluate the integral impact of two decades of USAID interventions and forecast the effects of defundation on mortality until 2030. The lancet. June 2025. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(25)01186-9