La población europea se está adaptando mejor al frío que al calor

A study led by the Global Health Institute of Barcelona (ISGLOBAL), a center imported by the «La Caixa» Foundation, has shown that Europe has adapted to the low temperatures that to the high ones in the last two decades. Research, carried out in collaboration with Barcelona Centro de Supercomputa published in Lancet planetary healthMass that in the last years has had a Disiminution Significant the risk of cold -related mortality, compared to the first decade of the 2000s. There has also been a reduction of the risk of deaths related to heat during this period, although to a lesser extent.

After analyzing the temperature and mortality records of more than 800 regions of 35 European countries during the 2003-2020 period, the scientific upous discovered the the EL EL Relative risk of death at lower temperatures in 2% per year. By ootro -Loado, the relative risk of death in the highest temperatures also decreased, but at a lower average rate of 1 % per year.

New focus to take regionalferences into account

Traditionally, studies of this type have been based on fixed temperature umbales to calculate the risks, without taking into account that vulnerability to the same temperatures is not the regions of Europe in Europe. To overcome this limitation, the team developed a new concept: the risk temperature extreme (ETR, for its acronym in English). To Cruzars Regional Temperature and Mortality Data, this new focus allowed the temperature of the temperature at which the risk of death exceeds a threshold for each geographical area. The researchers also took into account the variations in mortality to reflect adaptations to temperature over time.

Using this methodology, the Equipo Equipo discourages that in the period 2003-2020 Europe He experienced 2.07 days less of dangerous cold (cold-eert days) every year. On the contrary, the days of dangerous heat (days of heat-ert) Aumson in 0.28 days per year.

Curiosamé, not all parts of Europe were affected in the same way. For example, the Regions of southeastern EuropeDespite their warmer conditions, they had more dangerous days of heat and cold, which caused a mayor of associated mortality.

«Over time, we have improved in the management of cold temperatures, a process known in science as Zhao-Yue ChenIslobal researcher and first author of the study.

«The extreme temperature vulnerability varies From a place to award, and the regions of southern Europe are more sensitive to the changita of temperature than those of the north. This disparity is partly due to socioeconomic factors, such as inappropriate isolamie Zhao-Yue Chen.

«Our results show that, although Europe has made notable progress in adaptation to cold, Strategies to deal with heat -related mortality have been less effective. A 2024 study revealed that only 20 of the 38 European countries have implemented temperature surveillance systems, and 17 Aú countries do not have heat-salud action plans (Hapio). Our study shows the need to advance more in the measures of adaptation to heat and in the plans of Co-Calud Accio, ”he says Joan Ballester ClaramuntIslobal researcher and author of the study. «At the same time, the observed spatial disparisas underline the need for spicy strategies for body region with protecting from protecting vulnerable populations,» he adds.

Combined effects of temperature and atmospheric pollution

The team also analyzed the frequency with which extreme risk temperatures occurred in days with higher contamination levels to the limits recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO). The coincidence of these two events, known as «Compound days«, It occurred in 60 % of dangerous heat days and in 65 % of the days of dangerous cold. Over time, these compound days have been decreasing, except Combinaciód of dangerous dangerous days and high levels of ozone pollution (EITHER₃₎which increased at a rate of 0.26 days per year.

Ozone is a secondary pollutant that is formed in the atmosphere as a result of the interaction between other gases and solar broadcast. «As global warming intensifies, combined episodes of heat and ozone are becoming an inevitable worry and Urgent for Europe. We must take into account the compound days and develop spices strategies to deal with secondary pollutants such as Ozone, because the effects of extreme temperatures and atmosphered pollution in health without independent child. There is an interaction between them that can amplifies the adverse health effects, «he says Zhao-Yue Chen.

Early-adaptor project

The study has been carried out in the context of the project Suitable for the first (https://www.early-adapt.eu/), Funded by the European Research Council, and whose objective is to study how populations are adapting to public health challenges triggered by climate change.

Reference

Zhao-Yue Chen, Hicham Achebak, Hervé Petetin, Raúl Fernando Méndez Turubiates, Yuming Guo, Carlos Pérez García-Pando and Joan Ballester, trends in exposure to the population at the extreme risk temperature and air pollution in 35 European countries: a modeling study. Lancet planetary health2025. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(25)00048-8