Espacios verdes en Barcelona y prevención de muertes prematuras

To reverge one in three streets in the city of Barcelona could, potential, prevent 178 premature deaths every year thanks to the increase in vegetia that would entail this urban intervention. In addition, in months where heat waves occur, urban trees and gardens would contribute to avoid others 5 pierces associated with temperature. These are the main conclusions of an impact study in the Global Health Institute of Barcelona (ISGlobal), a center imported by the «La Caixa» Foundation and Posted in the magazine International Environment.

Methodologist

It is known that green spaces seociate a good number of benefits for physical and mental welfare and health, including a decrease in premature mortality. In addition, urban trees and vegetation provide shade areas and help fight the effects of urban heat islands. Therefore, an upward of Islobal set out to estimate the effects that Integral Implementant of the Green Axis Plan On the mortality of the adult population of Barcelona in relation to two variables: percentage of the Urban surface dedicated to green spaces AND Ambient temperature. In its theoretical formulation, the green axes plan provided that one in three streets of the city became a green corridor.

The team took 2019 as a year of reference prior to a hypothetical implementing of the plan. Subsequently, they obtained the mortality data related to the year and the city of Barcelona of two sources: the Institute of Statistics of Catalonia (IDESCAT) and the National Institute of Statistics (INE). The percentage of the green area of ​​the city was obtained through speaking maps of the European Environment Agency (EEA). According to the planned forecasts in the green axes project, they estimated that the intervention would lead to a union 7% or 15% increase in the green surface Of each street or intersection, in the function of their anchors.

Finally, to estimate the number of preventable deaths as a consequence of the increases in the surface of green spaces, anterior scientific studies were asserted that is quantified quantifies this relationship.

3.64% increase in the surface of green spaces

The results show that the creation of green axes throughout the city would mean an increase of 3.64% on the surface destined for green spaces, Moving from 7.3% in 2019 to 10.9%. This increase would tend the power to avoid 178 premature deaths per year, or what is the same: 13 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants.

“Barcelona is a compact city with a challenge in respecting green spaces: it has a little area for this purpose and, in addition, the little one has is wrong Tamara IungmanIslobal researcher and first author of the study. “Although the increase in green spaces that estimates is modest in terms of percentage, it no longer reaches 4% and the ICADIR investigated being very far from 25% recommendedIts impact in health terms is significant. This is because the green axis plan provided for an equitable distribution of these spaces throughout the entire CIADAD, ”he adds.

Five deaths associated with heat would be avoided

Parallament, the team conducted a second health impact study, related to mortality attributable to heat. With the help of various models, they estimated that the increase in the surface destined for expected green spaces could be translated into a 0.05 º C average temperature networkReaching 0.42º C reduction in some points of the city.

Once these figures were obtained and using the relationship between exposure to temperature and mortality established in previous scientific studies, they estimated that in a hypothet 5 Mueltes per month In high temperatures such as registrations in the summer month of 2015 that was taken as a reference. This is equivalent to one death every six days.

«Although the impact of green axes on temperatures would not be negligible, it is evident that It would take complementary measures Special Special Destined a fight the heat and adapt to it. This is specially relevant in the unoccus of climatic change and population that ages and volumes more vulnerable to the effects of high temperatures, ”warns Tamara Iungman.

Deaths Avoidable with the Metropolitan Urban Master Plan (PDUM)

Since the green axes plan was postponed, the Equipeo decided to analyze a alternative: Director of the Metropolitan Urban Plan (PDUM) of the Metropolitan Area of ​​Barcelona (AMB), which has among its objectives increase the surface destined for green spaces by 2030. Following the same Methodology Queen in the previous steps, Secoónemáto de la Celiento Elemátó de green spaces provided for in this plan could Prevent 53 premature deaths per year In the city of Barcelona, ​​that is, 4 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants.

With regard to temperature, the PDUM would achieve a Average reduction of 0.03 º CAlthough with a maximum reduces of 0.77º C in a specific area of ​​the city. This thermal descent would allow to prevent 3 deaths per month in temperature situations such as the use of reference.

“In our analysis we observe that the PDUM would obtain revenues in terms of health more limited than the green axes. This can explain because the interventions contemplated in the PDUM are more located and are not distributed equally throughout the city, so that the people who are living near those struggles of the anas «,» says they live closer to those points could, beneficiary of them, «he points out, they live those points, they could be beneficial,» says Mán. Mark NieuwenhuijsenDirector of the Climate Program, Atmospheric Contamination, Nature and Urban Health of Isglobal.

“It should be taken into account that in this only study we have taken into account the direct relationship between green spaces and mortality. From any urban intervention that proposes to increase the surface destined to green spaces, not only a reduction in the load of diseases could be expected, but also Additional benefits Associated with the reduction of Air and noise pollution and of the increase in the levels of Physical activity«Adds Nieuwenhuijsen.

Actually, Isglobal’s scientific uito is conducting a study with the same methodology to evaluate the impact on the mortality of the Green Covers project, an initiative of the true town hall that plant the refraining of roofs.

Reference

Tamara Iungman, Sergi Ventura Caballe, Ricard Segura-Barrero, Marta Cirach, Natalie Mueller, Carolyn Daher, Gara Villalba, Evelise Pereira Barboza, Mark Nieuwenhuijsen. Co-benefits of nature-based solutions: an impact evaluation of the health of the Barcelona Green Corridor (Eixos Verds), Environment International, Volume 196, 2025, 109313, ISSN 0160-4120, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2025.109313.